$797.0 Million Re-REMIC Pass-Through Certificates Series 2009-IO
This presale report is based on information as of Nov. 2, 2009. The ratings shown are preliminary. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings.
Preliminary Ratings As Of Nov. 2, 2009
Class
Preliminary rating*
Preliminary amount ($)
A1
AAA
560,000,000
A2
NR
72,000,000
B
NR
165,000,000
A1-A¶
AAA
420,000,000
A1-B¶
AAA
140,000,000
A2-A¶
NR
36,000,000
A2-B¶
NR
36,000,000
B-A¶
NR
82,500,000
B-B¶
NR
82,500,000
*The rating on each class of securities is preliminary and subject to change at any time. The certificates will be issued to qualified institutional buyers according to Rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933. ¶Exchangeable certificates. NR--Not rated. N/A--Not applicable.
Transaction Details
Expected closing date
Nov. 6, 2009.
Distribution date
Two business days after the 15th of each month; the first distribution date will be Nov. 18, 2009.
Legal final maturity date
July 2056.
Total security amount ($)
797,000,000.
Rated security amount ($)
560,000,000.
Structure
The transaction will pay interest sequentially to the A1 and A2 classes and then principal to the A1 class until the A1 class is paid off. It will then pay principal to the A2 class until that class is paid off. Then it will pay principal to the B class, which receives no interest. The class A1, A2, and B certificates are exchangeable.
Collateral
159 CMBS interest-only (IO) certificates from 151 different fixed-rate CMBS securitizations.
Participants
Underwriter
Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc.
Depositor
Morgan Stanley Atlas Inc.
Trustee
Wells Fargo Bank N.A.
Rationale
The preliminary ratings assigned to Morgan Stanley Re-REMIC Trust 2009-IO�??s $797.0 million re-REMIC pass-through certificates reflect the expected performance of the collateral under our 'AAA' stress scenario, the liquidity provided by the trustee, and the transaction structure. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services stressed the underlying interest-only (IO) certificates in the pool by applying the methodology outlined in the existing criteria for rating U.S. conduit/fusion commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) pools. We also applied various stress scenarios varying the timing of defaults and recoveries and the resultant interest that would be received.
Strengths
In our view, transaction exhibits the following strengths:
The IO certificates are backed by a diverse pool of securities from a wide range of vintages; and
IO certificates are generally senior in underlying CMBS interest proceeds distribution waterfalls.
Potential risks and mitigating factors
In our opinion, the transaction exhibits the following potential risk and mitigating factor:
The cash flows from the underlying certificates are less predictable than typical CMBS principal and interest certificates and can be reduced by prepayments, appraisal reductions, and liquidations of defaulted loans. To mitigate this risk, Standard & Poor's applied its conduit/fusion criteria to the loans and layered on additional stresses, which included stressing the timing of defaults and recoveries.
Transaction Overview
On the closing date, Morgan Stanley Atlas Inc., the depositor, will transfer the underlying certificates to the trustee, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., in exchange for these certificates and will sell the certificates to Morgan Stanley & Co. Inc. (as the initial purchaser).
The trustee is entitled to receive all distributions from the related underlying certificates on the same dates as the related underlying distribution dates; the first distribution date will be Nov. 18, 2009.
Underlying Securities
Tables 1 and 2 provide information about the underlying securities as of Oct. 26, 2009. More information on the transactions that Standard & Poor's rates is available on RatingsDirect at www.ratingsdirect.com.
Table 1
Underlying Securities
Deal name
Class
CUSIP
Vintage
S & P current rating
ASC95D01
A1CS
045424AC2
1995
NR
ASC97D04
PS1
045424DU9
1997
NR
ASC97D05
PS1
045424FJ2
1997
NR
BACM0302
XC
05947UME5
2003
AAA
BACM0401
XC
05947UQY7
2004
AAA
BACM0404
XP
05947UVQ8
2004
AAA
BACM0503
XC
05947US82
2005
AAA
BACM0601
XC
05947U7E2
2006
AAA
BACM0605
XC
05950XBN5
2006
AAA
BACM0605
XP
05950XAG1
2006
AAA
BACM0801
XW
05952AAJ3
2008
AAA
BASS02X1
XC
05947UGF9
2002
AAA
BSC00WF1
X
07383FDB1
2000
AAA
BSC03T10
X2
07383FQZ4
2003
AAA
BSC04PW3
X1
07383FYN2
2004
AAA
BSC04PW3
X2
07383FYP7
2004
AAA
BSC05PW9
X2
07387BAS2
2005
AAA
BSC06P13
X1
07388LAJ9
2006
AAA
BSC06P14
X2
07388PAK7
2006
AAA
BSC06P14
XW
07388PBS9
2006
AAA
BSC06T22
X
07387BGL1
2006
NR
BSC06T24
X1
07388NAX4
2006
NR
BSC07P15
X2
07388RBQ9
2007
AAA
BSC07P16
X
07388YAJ1
2007
NR
CAM02CA2
X
12477MAA8
2002
AAA/Watch Neg
CCSC97C2
X
161505BM3
1997
NR
CCSC99C2
X
161505DL3
1999
AAA
CD07CD4
XC
12513YBD1
2007
AAA
CMAC98C1
X
201728CV2
1998
AAA
CMAC98C2
X
201728DM1
1998
AAA
CMAT99C1
X
201730AJ7
1999
AAA
CMFU9901
X
161582AC5
1999
AAA
CMLB01C1
X
201736AE5
2001
AAA
COB06C01
IO
190749AG6
2006
AAA
COM03LN1
X1
126175AG3
2003
AAA
COM05C06
XC
126171AP2
2005
AAA
COM06C07
X
20047QAL9
2006
AAA
CSF01CF2
AX
22540AK31
2001
AAA
CSF01CK3
AX
22540A2P2
2001
NR
CSF01CK5
AX
22540VDK5
2001
AAA
CSF02CK4
AX
22541NNJ4
2002
AAA
CSF02CP5
AX
22541NVA4
2002
AAA
CSF03C03
AX
22541QEP3
2003
AAA
CSF03C04
AX
22541QSY9
2003
AAA
CSF04C02
AX
22541SLE6
2004
AAA
CSF04C03
ASP
22541SXC7
2004
NR
CSF04C03
AX
22541SXB9
2004
NR
CSF04C05
AX
22541S3Y2
2004
AAA
CSF97C02
AX
22540AET1
1997
NR
CSF98C01
AX
22540AFU7
1998
AAA
CSF98C02
AX
22540AJN9
1998
NR
CSM06C03
AX
22545DAY3
2006
AAA
CSM06C04
AX
22545MAZ0
2006
AAA
CSM07C02
AX
22545YBS9
2007
AAA
CTG04C02
XC
173067EL9
2004
AAA
DLJ00CK1
S
23322BNY0
2000
NR
DLJ97CF2
S
23321PF60
1997
NR
FULB97C2
IO
33736LAW5
1997
NR
FUNB00C1
IO
33736XAH2
2000
AAA
FUNB00C2
IO
33736XBN8
2000
AAA
FUNB99C2
IO
337366AC2
1999
NR
GCC04GG1
XC
396789GK9
2004
AAA
GECC0001
X
36158YAC3
2000
NR
GECC03C1
X1
36828QAG1
2003
AAA
GECC04C1
X1
36828QDR4
2004
AAA
GECC04C3
X1
36828QJK3
2004
AAA
GMAC02C1
X1
361849UF7
2002
AAA
GMAC02C2
X1
361849UW0
2002
AAA
GMAC04C1
X1
361849D58
2004
AAA
GMAC04C3
X2
361849K27
2004
AAA
GMAC97C2
X
361849CG5
1997
NR
GMAC98C1
X
361849DD1
1998
NR
GMAC99C1
X
361849ER9
1999
AAA
GSM205G4
XC
36228CWD1
2005
AAA
GSM206G8
X
362332AR9
2006
NR
GSM299C1
X
36228CDE0
1999
AAA
JPC02C02
X1
46625MPS2
2002
AAA
JPC06LD8
X
46629MAJ4
2006
AAA
JPC07C01
X1
46630DAJ1
2007
AAA
JPC07C18
X
46629YAE9
2007
AAA
JPC07L10
X
46630JAH2
2007
NR
JPM00C10
X
617059JJ0
2000
NR
JPM01CI1
X1
46625MAJ8
2001
AAA
JPMC00C9
X
617059GZ7
2000
NR
JPMC97C5
X
617059DK3
1997
NR
JPMC99C7
X
617059FC9
1999
AAA/Watch Neg
LAS06MF4
X
51804VAA0
2006
NR
LBC07C03
X
50177AAP4
2007
AAA
LBC98C01
IO
501773AY1
1998
NR
LBC98C04
X
501773CG8
1998
AAA
LBC99C01
X
501773CX1
1999
NR
LBUB01C2
X
52108HDK7
2001
NR
LBUB01C3
X
52108HFH2
2001
AAA
LBUB02C7
XCL
52108HNT7
2002
AAA
LBUB03C1
XCL
52108HQH0
2003
AAA
LBUB03C3
XCP
52108HSH8
2003
AAA
LBUB03C5
XCL
52108HUE2
2003
AAA
LBUB04C7
XCL
52108HR97
2004
AAA
LBUB05C5
XCL
52108H7T5
2005
AAA
LBUB06C3
XCL
52108MGP2
2006
AAA
LBUB06C6
XCL
50179MAQ4
2006
AAA
LBUB06C6
XCP
50179MAP6
2006
AAA
LBUB06C7
XCP
50180CAN0
2006
AAA
LBUB06C7
XW
50180CAU4
2006
AAA
LBUB07C6
X
52109PAQ8
2007
AAA
LBUB08C1
XW
50180LAM2
2008
AAA
MLCF0603
XC
60687VBC8
2006
NR
MLCF0604
XC
55312VBD9
2006
AAA
MLCF0604
XP
55312VAQ1
2006
AAA
MLCF0705
X
55312YBD3
2007
AAA
MLCF0709
XP
60688CAR7
2007
AAA
MLM96C02
IO
589929MK1
1996
NR
MLM98C02
IO
589929QG6
1998
AAA
MLM98C03
IO
589929TD0
1998
AAA
MLT02MW1
XC
59022HAR3
2002
AAA
MLT03KY1
XC
59022HCL4
2003
AAA
MSC03IQ6
X2
61745MUF8
2003
AAA
MSC04HQ3
X2
61745MXK4
2004
AAA
MSC04HQ4
X2
61745MU27
2004
AAA
MSC05HQ5
X2
61745M3G6
2005
AAA
MSC05HQ6
X2
61745M6J7
2005
AAA
MSC05IQ9
X2
61745M2S1
2005
AAA
MSC05T17
X2
61745MW58
2005
AAA
MSC06H10
X1
61750HAL0
2006
NR
MSC06H10
X2
61750HAM8
2006
NR
MSC06HQ8
X
617451FU8
2006
AAA
MSC06HQ9
61750CAP2
2006
AAA
MSC06T21
X
617451CU1
2006
AAA
MSC06T23
X
61749MAA7
2006
AAA
MSC07H11
X
61751NAP7
2007
AAA
MSC07I14
X
61754KAM7
2007
NR
MSC07I15
X
61755YAM6
2007
AAA
MSC07T27
X1
61754JAJ7
2007
AAA
MSC198H2
X
61745MJW4
1998
NR
MSC198HF
X
61745MFH1
1998
AAA
MSC198W2
X
61745MGY3
1998
AAA
MSC199F1
X
61745MLU5
1999
AAA/Watch Neg
MSC199R1
X
61745MLE1
1999
NR
MSD03HQ2
X2
61746WD98
2003
AAA
MSDW01PP
X
61746WFH8
2001
AAA
MSDW01T1
X1
61746WFP0
2001
AAA
MSDW02I2
X1
61746WQT0
2002
AAA
NAS98D06
PS1
655356JJ3
1998
NR
NLFC9901
X
63859CBT9
1999
AAA/Watch Neg
PCM03PW1
X1
74432GAE7
2003
AAA
PMAC99C1
X
69574EAS9
1999
NR
PNC99CM1
S
69348HAA6
1999
AAA
SVG07C01
X
84604KAA7
2007
NR
WAMU06S1
X
933633AA7
2006
AAA
WAMU07S2
X
933632AA9
2007
NR
WAMU07S3
X
93364LAA6
2007
AAA
WBC03C05
XC
929766GV9
2003
AAA
WBC05C16
XC
929766ZE6
2005
AAA
WBC05C17
XP
929766C92
2005
AAA
WBC06C29
IO
92978PAG4
2006
AAA
WBC07C30
XW
92978QBZ9
2007
AAA
WBC07C31
IO
92978TBU4
2007
AAA
WBC07C33
IO
92978NAH7
2007
AAA
WMA03C01
X
93934DAA5
2003
AAA
Table 2
Delinquency Statistics
Deal name
Class
Total delinquency (%)
One-month delinquent (%)
Two-months delinquent (%)
Three months delinquent (%)
Foreclosure in process (%)
REO (%)
ASC95D01
A1CS
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
ASC97D04
PS1
0.82
0.00
0.00
0.54
0.28
0.00
ASC97D05
PS1
10.08
0.00
6.74
1.20
0.00
2.14
BACM0302
XC
3.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.54
1.49
BACM0401
XC
2.29
0.00
0.00
1.01
0.00
1.27
BACM0404
XP
5.64
0.88
0.00
1.21
3.55
0.00
BACM0503
XC
8.44
6.29
0.00
0.31
0.80
1.04
BACM0601
XC
4.81
0.31
0.40
4.09
0.00
0.00
BACM0605
XC
4.46
0.19
0.46
3.81
0.00
0.00
BACM0605
XP
4.46
0.19
0.46
3.81
0.00
0.00
BACM0801
XW
2.15
0.00
0.00
1.65
0.50
0.00
BASS02X1
XC
13.40
6.15
0.00
3.53
3.71
0.00
BSC00WF1
X
9.99
0.00
0.00
2.31
1.99
5.69
BSC03T10
X2
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
BSC04PW3
X1
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.31
0.00
BSC04PW3
X2
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.31
0.00
BSC05PW9
X2
7.20
0.00
6.57
0.62
0.00
0.00
BSC06P13
X1
2.31
0.00
0.00
0.70
1.61
0.00
BSC06P14
X2
1.86
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.61
0.00
BSC06P14
XW
1.86
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.61
0.00
BSC06T22
X
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.00
BSC06T24
X1
6.62
0.00
0.00
2.33
4.29
0.00
BSC07P15
X2
4.50
0.18
0.00
3.03
1.29
0.00
BSC07P16
X
3.53
0.64
0.60
0.98
1.32
0.00
CAM02CA2
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
CCSC97C2
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
CCSC99C2
X
5.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.67
0.00
CD07CD4
XC
7.13
0.34
0.25
0.66
5.88
0.00
CMAC98C1
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
CMAC98C2
X
3.23
0.00
0.00
2.43
0.00
0.80
CMAT99C1
X
2.10
0.26
0.00
0.35
0.39
1.11
CMFU9901
X
6.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.11
2.45
CMLB01C1
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
COB06C01
IO
6.16
0.05
1.04
2.76
1.06
1.24
COM03LN1
X1
3.61
0.00
0.91
1.06
1.63
0.00
COM05C06
XC
6.35
0.28
0.00
0.00
4.75
1.32
COM06C07
X
0.80
0.00
0.25
0.31
0.06
0.17
CSF01CF2
AX
3.90
0.05
1.78
0.00
0.61
1.46
CSF01CK3
AX
4.29
1.79
0.13
0.93
1.43
0.00
CSF01CK5
AX
0.17
0.00
0.09
0.08
0.00
0.00
CSF02CK4
AX
8.11
4.44
0.00
2.46
0.69
0.52
CSF02CP5
AX
1.35
0.00
0.00
0.44
0.91
0.00
CSF03C03
AX
1.74
0.16
0.33
0.28
0.97
0.00
CSF03C04
AX
3.75
0.00
0.00
3.51
0.24
0.00
CSF04C02
AX
1.02
0.60
0.34
0.00
0.08
0.00
CSF04C03
ASP
6.71
0.49
0.00
4.31
1.12
0.79
CSF04C03
AX
6.71
0.49
0.00
4.31
1.12
0.79
CSF04C05
AX
1.80
0.35
0.36
0.93
0.15
0.00
CSF97C02
AX
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
CSF98C01
AX
8.42
0.00
0.00
3.28
0.00
5.13
CSF98C02
AX
1.96
1.96
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
CSM06C03
AX
2.48
0.19
0.00
0.90
1.40
0.00
CSM06C04
AX
10.31
0.79
0.35
5.61
3.32
0.24
CSM07C02
AX
4.02
0.00
0.14
3.88
0.00
0.00
CTG04C02
XC
1.94
0.94
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
DLJ00CK1
S
1.22
0.41
0.00
0.49
0.32
0.00
DLJ97CF2
S
8.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
8.04
0.00
FULB97C2
IO
3.81
0.00
3.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
FUNB00C1
IO
2.06
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.69
FUNB00C2
IO
3.42
0.00
0.00
2.65
0.76
0.00
FUNB99C2
IO
1.42
0.00
0.00
1.42
0.00
0.00
GCC04GG1
XC
0.93
0.00
0.00
0.93
0.00
0.00
GECC0001
X
0.31
0.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
GECC03C1
X1
1.96
0.00
0.00
0.27
1.69
0.00
GECC04C1
X1
3.20
0.00
0.30
0.77
1.93
0.20
GECC04C3
X1
1.64
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.24
0.00
GMAC02C1
X1
6.42
0.00
0.00
4.70
0.77
0.95
GMAC02C2
X1
1.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.17
0.00
GMAC04C1
X1
2.11
1.27
0.00
0.84
0.00
0.00
GMAC04C3
X2
7.30
3.57
1.47
0.64
0.36
1.26
GMAC97C2
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
GMAC98C1
X
51.55
0.00
0.00
51.55
0.00
0.00
GMAC99C1
X
8.18
3.19
2.11
0.00
0.00
2.87
GSM205G4
XC
3.30
1.08
0.00
0.14
2.09
0.00
GSM206G8
X
13.27
3.25
0.63
8.21
0.75
0.43
GSM299C1
X
23.11
5.85
0.00
8.81
3.35
5.11
JPC02C02
X1
7.06
0.00
2.71
2.16
2.19
0.00
JPC06LD8
X
1.42
0.38
0.12
0.00
0.85
0.06
JPC07C01
X1
11.43
1.55
0.49
9.39
0.00
0.00
JPC07C18
X
4.37
0.16
0.00
2.33
1.75
0.14
JPC07L10
X
5.65
2.29
0.53
1.51
1.32
0.00
JPM00C10
X
9.73
0.71
4.67
1.18
3.16
0.00
JPM01CI1
X1
3.29
0.00
0.23
1.95
1.11
0.00
JPMC00C9
X
5.58
2.32
0.00
3.26
0.00
0.00
JPMC97C5
X
1.15
0.00
0.00
1.15
0.00
0.00
JPMC99C7
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
LAS06MF4
X
17.76
3.92
3.34
8.06
1.83
0.61
LBC07C03
X
7.94
2.91
0.00
5.03
0.00
0.00
LBC98C01
IO
11.75
0.00
2.32
2.79
0.00
6.64
LBC98C04
X
18.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.27
6.74
LBC99C01
X
7.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.06
0.00
LBUB01C2
X
4.41
0.00
0.08
0.06
2.37
1.89
LBUB01C3
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
LBUB02C7
XCL
1.84
0.52
0.00
0.14
0.24
0.94
LBUB03C1
XCL
0.95
0.00
0.00
0.60
0.35
0.00
LBUB03C3
XCP
0.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.57
LBUB03C5
XCL
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
LBUB04C7
XCL
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.14
0.00
LBUB05C5
XCL
0.55
0.32
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
LBUB06C3
XCL
2.60
0.00
0.12
1.44
1.04
0.00
LBUB06C6
XCL
2.42
1.10
0.08
1.03
0.20
0.00
LBUB06C6
XCP
2.42
1.10
0.08
1.03
0.20
0.00
LBUB06C7
XCP
5.31
0.13
0.00
0.40
4.40
0.37
LBUB06C7
XW
5.31
0.13
0.00
0.40
4.40
0.37
LBUB07C6
X
3.06
1.17
1.24
0.65
0.00
0.00
LBUB08C1
XW
5.81
1.10
0.00
0.00
4.71
0.00
MLCF0603
XC
5.62
1.19
0.00
3.61
0.82
0.00
MLCF0604
XC
3.76
0.81
0.00
1.57
1.07
0.31
MLCF0604
XP
3.76
0.81
0.00
1.57
1.07
0.31
MLCF0705
X
2.20
0.56
0.00
0.82
0.83
0.00
MLCF0709
XP
7.12
5.49
0.09
0.97
0.36
0.22
MLM96C02
IO
24.41
0.00
0.00
24.41
0.00
0.00
MLM98C02
IO
10.99
7.60
2.33
1.05
0.00
0.00
MLM98C03
IO
7.20
0.00
0.00
7.20
0.00
0.00
MLT02MW1
XC
1.20
0.00
0.27
0.00
0.94
0.00
MLT03KY1
XC
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
MSC03IQ6
X2
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
MSC04HQ3
X2
0.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.51
MSC04HQ4
X2
3.43
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.43
0.00
MSC05HQ5
X2
2.10
0.45
0.00
1.28
0.00
0.37
MSC05HQ6
X2
2.95
0.55
0.00
0.00
2.16
0.23
MSC05IQ9
X2
2.13
0.00
0.00
2.13
0.00
0.00
MSC05T17
X2
0.83
0.00
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.00
MSC06H10
X1
5.27
0.00
2.71
2.11
0.45
0.00
MSC06H10
X2
5.27
0.00
2.71
2.11
0.45
0.00
MSC06HQ8
X
4.03
0.58
0.00
1.60
1.86
0.00
MSC06HQ9
X
3.82
0.11
0.09
3.12
0.51
0.00
MSC06T21
X
1.45
0.00
0.68
0.31
0.00
0.46
MSC06T23
X
3.25
0.00
0.00
3.25
0.00
0.00
MSC07H11
X
3.07
0.25
0.61
0.33
1.88
0.00
MSC07I14
X
7.93
0.12
0.00
3.31
4.50
0.00
MSC07I15
X
6.52
1.84
0.00
0.08
1.41
3.19
MSC07T27
X1
1.37
0.00
0.00
0.17
1.14
0.06
MSC198H2
X
4.73
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.73
MSC198HF
X
10.09
3.53
0.00
6.56
0.00
0.00
MSC198W2
X
1.44
0.00
0.00
1.44
0.00
0.00
MSC199F1
X
21.65
21.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
MSC199R1
X
9.24
7.38
0.00
0.00
1.85
0.00
MSD03HQ2
X2
1.66
0.00
0.00
1.66
0.00
0.00
MSDW01PP
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
MSDW01T1
X1
7.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.63
3.91
MSDW02I2
X1
1.74
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.74
0.00
NAS98D06
PS1
4.00
1.44
0.00
0.53
2.03
0.00
NLFC9901
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
PCM03PW1
X1
0.92
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.92
0.00
PMAC99C1
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
PNC99CM1
S
9.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.94
8.60
SVG07C01
X
4.75
0.87
0.35
1.45
1.94
0.14
WAMU06S1
X
4.69
0.15
0.07
2.36
1.77
0.34
WAMU07S2
X
3.68
1.09
0.15
1.03
1.41
0.00
WAMU07S3
X
3.96
0.25
0.03
2.42
1.27
0.00
WBC03C05
XC
1.09
0.57
0.00
0.25
0.28
0.00
WBC05C16
XC
1.77
1.52
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
WBC05C17
XP
1.63
0.38
0.97
0.28
0.00
0.00
WBC06C29
IO
5.45
0.97
1.63
2.26
0.59
0.00
WBC07C30
XW
1.83
0.52
0.15
0.51
0.64
0.00
WBC07C31
IO
6.18
3.62
0.00
2.50
0.00
0.06
WBC07C33
IO
3.49
0.19
0.08
2.13
1.10
0.00
WMA03C01
X
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total
4.54
0.82
0.35
2.06
1.09
0.22
REO--Real estate owned. Deals are weighted by cash flow assuming no prepayments.
We published a request for comment proposing changes to the IO criteria on June 1, 2009 (see "Request for Comment: Methodology For Rating Interest-Only Certificates"). After we finalize our criteria review, we may revise our current criteria. Any change in our criteria may affect outstanding ratings, including the ratings on the IO certificates underlying this transaction. However, ratings actions related to the change in criteria would not necessarily result in rating actions on this transaction.
Table 3 provides the collateral distribution for the year of issuance.
Table 3
Cash Flow By Deal Vintage
Vintage
Deal count
% of cash flow
2008
2
2.3
2007
21
23.7
2006
31
35.1
2005
11
7.3
2004
17
11.3
2003
15
7.0
2002
10
4.8
2001
9
2.0
2000
7
1.2
1999
13
1.4
1998
13
2.8
1997
8
1.0
1996
1
0.1
1995
1
0.0
Total
159
100
Note: Deals are weighted by cash flow assuming no prepayments.
Rating Methodology
Standard & Poor's applied its criteria for rating conduit/fusion pools (please see, "U.S. CMBS Rating Methodology And Assumptions For Conduit/Fusion Pools," published on June 26, 2009). We excluded deals with fewer than 40 loans and deals where the majority of the transaction's loans were close to maturity from our analysis and did not give credit for these cash flows. We then utilized Trepp's cash flow model to project the cash flows on the underlying certificates. We looked to a number of scenarios that stressed the timing of defaults and recoveries, but primarily relied on the following:
We assumed that all loans, except for specially serviced loans, that defaulted during their term based on our 'AAA' criteria would default between months 13 and 18 with a 12 month recovery;
We also assumed 100% prepayment after the penalty period is over;
Specially serviced loans were defaulted immediately with a 12-month recovery; and
Given the less stable nature of the collateral cash flows, we relied on the first five years of cash flow from the IO certificates to pay principal and interest on the 'AAA' bonds.
Based on the output from Trepp and the stressed scenario outlined herein, we determined that the class A1 certificates, and the related exchangeable certificates, classes A1-A and A1-B, would be paid off after the expenses and interest payable that are senior in the waterfall in our 'AAA' scenario.
Scenario Analysis
As part of our analysis, we reviewed the underlying IO securities associated with the rated offered certificates and subjected them to various stressed loss scenarios based on our conduit/fusion criteria and modeled them as outlined above. We further stressed the timing of the cash flows by assuming that all of the term loan defaults occur in the underlying CMBS transactions in the next 18 months and applied recoveries 12 months after default. Furthermore, we only relied on the first five years of cash flow from the underlying CMBS IO securities.
Standard & Poor's stressed cash flow analysis, excluding several transactions as outlined in the Rating Methodology section above, equates to a 19 constant default rate (CDR) stress on the loans in the underlying transactions, assuming a 40% loss severity, a 12-month recovery period, and a 100% conditional prepayment rate (CPR) after penalties. We expect the actual cash flows from the underlying IO transactions to be well in excess of those derived in our 'AAA' stress scenario, and in our opinion, the ratings should be able to withstand significant volatility in the cash flows from the underlying transactions.
On an ongoing basis, Standard & Poor's will compare the actual cash flows received to the cash flows expected in our stressed scenario. We will re-analyze the transaction in accordance with the methodology outlined herein and may take rating actions if, at any time, we feel that actual principal and interest payments are at risk of being lower than the cash flow generated by the stressed scenario.
Extraordinary Expenses
Extraordinary expenses are capped at a $200,000 calendar-year limit, and a $1,000,000 lifetime limit, which the trustee withdraws from the certificate account to reduce the available interest remittance amount.
In modeling the transaction, Standard & Poor's assumed that this expense would be paid each year.
Exchangeable Certificates
All or a portion of the class A1 certificates may be exchanged for proportionate interests in the class A1-A and A1-B certificates. All or a portion of the class A2 certificates may be exchanged for proportionate interests in the class A2-A and A2-B certificates. All or a portion of the class B certificates may be exchanged for proportionate interests in the class B-A and B-B certificates.
Payment Priority
On each distribution date, the trustee will make disbursements and transfers from the related group's available funds in the order of priority shown in chart 1.
Related Research
�??U.S. CMBS Rating Methodology And Assumptions For Conduit/Fusion Pools,�?? published June 26, 2009.