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Presale: Turquoise Card Backed Securities PLC

Publication Date:    May 17, 2006 17:08 Europe/London

Presale: Turquoise Card Backed Securities PLC
Primary Credit Analyst:
Prashant Dwivedi, London (44) 20-7176-3521;
prashant_dwivedi@standardandpoors.com
Surveillance Credit Analyst:
Alice Keegan, London (44) 20-7176-3907;
alice_keegan@standardandpoors.com
Additional Contact:
Structured Finance Europe;
StructuredFinanceEurope@standardandpoors.com
Publication date: 17-May-06, 12:08:24 EST
Reprinted from RatingsDirect



U.S. Dollar-Denominated Asset-Backed Floating-Rate Notes Series 2006-1

This presale report is based on information as of May 17, 2006. The credit ratings shown are preliminary. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final credit ratings that differ from the preliminary credit ratings rating.

Class Prelim. rating* Prelim. percentage amount (%)** Available credit support (%) Interest Legal final maturity
A AAA 88.0 12.0 One-month U.S. dollar LIBOR plus a margin May 16, 2011
B A 5.5 6.5 One-month U.S. dollar LIBOR plus a margin May 16, 2011
C BBB 6.5 Excess spread One-month U.S. dollar LIBOR plus a margin May 16, 2011
*The rating on each class of securities is preliminary as of May 17, 2006 and subject to change at any time. Final credit ratings are expected to be assigned on the closing date subject to a satisfactory review of the transaction documents and legal opinion, and completion of a corporate overview. Standard & Poor's ratings address timely interest and ultimate principal. **Final amount to be determined.

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Local media contact numbers  
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Executive Summary

Preliminary credit ratings have been assigned in HSBC Bank PLC's (HSBC's) first entrance into the U.K. credit card securitization market. The U.S. dollar-denominated asset-backed floating-rate notes will be issued by a new master trust structure via Turquoise Card Backed Securities PLC (Turquoise).

This structure could be used to issue further tranches in future. The trust has been set up to accept securitized receivables generated by two entities within the HSBC group: HSBC and HFC Bank Ltd. (HFC).

Of the first issuance, 88.0% will be issued as class A notes, 5.5% as class B notes, and 6.5% as class C notes. When this first series closes, only receivables originated by HSBC will be sold into the trust. Receivables originated by HFC are eligible to be securitized and are expected to be added later.

The transaction follows the usual linked structure: the investor beneficiary and the loan note issuer (Turquoise Funding 1 Ltd.) will use the note proceeds to obtain a beneficiary interest in the trust. The notes are scheduled to mature on the payment date in May 2009. The legal final maturity date is May 16, 2011.

The HSBC group, comprising HSBC Holdings and its subsidiaries, is one of the largest banking and financial services groups in the world, with over 9,800 offices in 77 countries. It is organized into five geographic regions: Europe; Hong Kong; the rest of the Asia-Pacific, including the Middle East and Africa; North America; and South America.

As of June 2005, the group's total U.K. credit card portfolio, including M&S Money and First Direct, made it one of the top six credit card issuers in the U.K., by number of cards issued and balances.

The notes are backed by collateral that shows strong performance. Unless otherwise specified, we have weighted all historical data provided for HSBC and HFC. Compared with other major U.K. credit card issuers, this combined pool (Turquoise eligible pool; TEP) has one of the lowest gross charge-off rates, and the highest payment rate. The 'BBB' notes are protected by an excess spread trapping mechanism. Bank accounts will be provided by HSBC, which has been rated 'A-1+' by Standard & Poor's. The issuer will also enter into a swap agreement with HSBC.


Strengths, Concerns, And Mitigating Factors


Strengths

  • The weighted-average seasoning of the trust portfolio is high at 94.5 months.
  • The assets are good quality, with relatively low losses compared to HSBC's competitors and to the European index.
  • HSBC has established strong underwriting and tight collection standards.
  • Risks associated with dilution and fraud have been appropriately sized through the minimum seller share.

Concerns

  • The pool characteristics could change during the revolving period.
  • Increasing competition in the U.K. credit card market has forced HSBC and its competitors to offer low introductory rates. This lowers the principal payment rate for the originator because customers do not have any incentive to make any payment beyond the minimum required monthly payment.
  • On closing, only HSBC receivables will be sold into the trust but in future, receivables originated by HFC may be included in the trust. The gross charge-off for HSBC receivables is less than that for HFC. If the proportion of HFC receivables in the overall portfolio increases significantly, the overall charge-off for the transaction will increase.

Mitigating factors

  • Assets may only be substituted if the replacements meet eligibility criteria.
  • We derived a "steady state" figure for the principal payment rate, and applied considerable "haircuts" to this figure in its analysis.
  • Our base case charge-off and payment rates were set after stressing them by increasing HFC's assumed proportion of receivables mix in the overall portfolio.

Transaction Structure

At closing, Turquoise will issue the class A, B, and C notes, the proceeds of which will be swapped (where required) into British pounds sterling and used to purchase the loan note issued by Turquoise Funding 1 (see chart 1).

image

Turquoise Funding 1 will use the funds to purchase a beneficial interest in the receivables trust. HSBC will transfer receivables from certain designated accounts to the Turquoise receivables trust, which was set up on Jan. 27, 2006. The receivables trustee holds the receivables in trust for the trust beneficiaries. The entitlement of each beneficiary is determined by its investment in the receivables trust.

The Turquoise receivables trust was formed under a declaration of trust and a trust cash management agreement to securitize credit card receivables. The loan note issuer, Turquoise Funding 1, will acquire an initial beneficiary interest in the trust property in respect of the series 2006-1 notes. HSBC will be the transferor beneficiary and the excess interest beneficiary, both of which are initial beneficiaries in the trust. The receivables trust complies with Standard & Poor's SPE bankruptcy-remoteness criteria.

The assets of the receivables trust will be allocated among the beneficiaries of each series and the transferor beneficiary pari passu. The excess interest beneficiary is entitled to collect finance charges if they are not used by any other beneficiary.

HSBC will transfer the designated accounts to the trust under an agreement between it and the receivables trustee. The money owing on those cards, plus any fees outstanding, will comprise the trust property.

The receivables consist of amounts charged by cardholders to the designated accounts for the acquisition of merchandise and services and for cash advances, plus the related finance charges and certain fees.

Key Parties Involved
Originator HSBC Bank PLC
Arranger HSBC Bank PLC
Seller HSBC Bank PLC
Servicer HSBC Bank PLC
Receivables trustee Turquoise Receivables Trustee Ltd.
Currency swap counterparty HSBC Bank PLC
Transaction account provider HSBC Bank PLC
Collection account provider HSBC Bank PLC

Supporting Ratings
Institution/role Ratings
HSBC as transaction account provider and currency swap counterparty AA-/Positive/A-1+


Credit card securitization in Europe

The European credit card market has grown rapidly since the mid-1990s. Credit card receivables are now widely seen as a stable asset class. Since the first credit card receivables securitization in 1995, there have been 61 issuances out of 12 trusts, a total of £31.4 billion. Approximately £22.8 billion of this issuance was still outstanding at the end of 2005. Barclaycard has issued the highest percentage of this total (27.2%), followed by MBNA (24.7%) (see chart 2).

image


Originator

HSBC and its subsidiaries form a U.K.-based group providing a comprehensive range of banking and related financial services.

The HSBC group, comprising HSBC Holdings and its subsidiaries, is one of the largest banking and financial services groups in the world, with over 9,800 offices in 77 countries and territories in five geographic regions: Europe, Hong Kong; the rest of the Asia-Pacific, including the Middle East and Africa; North America; and South America. Its total assets as at Dec. 31, 2005 were $1,502 billion. HSBC is HSBC group's principal operating subsidiary undertaking in Europe.

HSBC group acquired Household International Inc., one of the largest independent consumer finance businesses in the U.S., in March 2003. HFC is the U.K. arm of Household International. HFC transferred its credit card business to HSBC in December 2005.

HSBC is one of the leading credit card issuers in the U.K. It is regulated under the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 and is an authorized institution supervised by the FSA.

We rate HSBC's short-term unsecured and unguaranteed debt obligations at 'A-1+'.

HSBC issued its first credit card in 1972. HSBC's Card Services division manages the bank portfolio and leads the development of new credit card products for the originator.

Card Services is increasing its credit card portfolio through a multi-brand/multi-channel approach. It markets credit cards directly and through affiliates and under various brands and co-brands with third parties, as well as originating accounts under the HSBC brand.

As mentioned above, only accounts originated by HSBC and HFC will be eligible to be included in the securitized portfolio. The portfolio will not include M&S Money, John Lewis partnership and account cards, or First Direct receivables.

Card Services uses a customer-driven strategy and risk-based pricing to offer a range of products through a variety of origination channels to target different segments of the market with different brands. HSBC markets its cards primarily to existing HSBC customers, who tend to be more focused on customer service and issuer reputation. HFC targets clients who are not yet HSBC group customers. For example, co-branded retailer credit cards are marketed to store customers and customers averse to retail banks, while the "marbles" brand is marketed through the Internet.

Underwriting and collection policy. Accounts originated by the HSBC group are backed by strong underwriting and collection policy. HSBC migrated to the group's in-house card account processing system (WHIRL) in February 2005. The system analytics enabled HSBC to improve risk management and identify target customers more accurately.

Delinquent receivables are dealt with in different ways at various stages of delinquency. These efforts include statement messages, formal letters, and telephone calls generated through call processing centers at U.K. sites and at global service centers, which maintain an automated telephone dialing system to contact delinquent accountholders.

HSBC considers an account to be contractually delinquent if the minimum payment is not received by the due date indicated on the customer's statement. Once an account is recognized as delinquent, HSBC determines the timing and type of the initial contact and the frequency of subsequent contacts. This decision is based upon the score assigned to the account by the account management strategy system and the severity of any cardholder misuse.

After about 150 days' delinquency, HSBC receivables are typically referred to Debt Recovery Services, a wholly owned subsidiary debt recovery agency. Debt recovery services do not purchase the debt but take commission on any recoveries. HSBC will only re-age accounts where there was an administrative error or after two or more timely monthly payments on a delinquent account.

After default and delivery of a default notice, HSBC may choose to set off debts against the funds in an accountholder's HSBC bank account, unless these funds are protected from any set-off (e.g., student loans). Debts are rarely abandoned unless the debt is under £15.

Each set of final terms will contain tables relating to the securitized portfolio. These include the historic contractual delinquencies of accounts in the securitized portfolio, broken down according to the number of days by which payments are overdue, as well as loss experience and provisions for bad and doubtful debt.

HSBC continues to monitor fraud via a system known as FALCON, which monitors real-time credit card transactional activity and scores each transaction according to potential fraud risk. The bank continuously evaluates accountholders' credit behavior and suitability via TRIAD, an account management system. Both TRIAD and FALCON are industry-standard tools, which help in effectively monitoring credit behavior and fraud.


Servicing

As part of servicing, HSBC sends monthly statements to its cardholders. HSBC's cardholders must make a monthly minimum payment of the greater of:

  • 3% of the statement balance; and
  • The stated minimum payment, which is currently £5 or the total amount if the balance is less than £5.

HSBC charges late and over-limit fees as well as charges for returned cheques. Finance charges on purchases are assessed monthly by multiplying the account's average daily purchase balance over the billing period by the applicable monthly rate.

A similar method is used to assess finance charges on cash advances. These are assessed monthly by multiplying the account's average daily balance of cash advances over the billing period by the applicable monthly rate.

HSBC may change the interest rates on its credit card accounts. Rates are not currently linked to any index. This is market practice in the U.K.

HSBC also offers activation programs and other incentive programs.

HSBC's pricing decisions are based upon:

  • Actual and anticipated movements in underlying interest rates,
  • Risk profile,
  • Marketing strategies and recruitment campaigns, and
  • The competitive environment.

Portfolio Statistics*
Expected closing date June 8, 2006
Collateral Credit card receivables
Eligible collateral Visa and MasterCard receivables originated by HSBC and HFC
Initial collateral Visa and MasterCard receivables originated by HSBC
Total receivables(£) 2,879,402,210
Weighted-average credit limit (£) 6,909
Weighted-average principal balance (£) 911
Weighted-average seasoning (months) 94.5
Country of origination U.K.
Concentration London (26.72%)
*As at March 31, 2006. All the data above corresponds to initial collateral only.


Terms And Conditions Of Series 2006-1

Series 2006-1 is structured with a revolving period followed by a controlled accumulation period. All the notes will pay interest monthly on the 15th day of each month at a margin over U.S. dollar LIBOR. The first payment will be due on Aug. 15, 2006. During the revolving period, which ends on May 15, 2008, principal collections will be available to purchase additional receivables that have arisen under the designated accounts. The revolving period will be followed by a controlled accumulation period. The length of this period will be adjusted to meet the series 2006-1 scheduled redemption date of May 15, 2009.

During the revolving period, allocation of cash flows on the receivables will be based on the investor and transferor percentages at the end of the previous month (floating allocation method). During the various amortization periods, allocation of principal collections will be based on a fixed percentage set at the end of the revolving period. Finance charge collections and investor defaults will continue to be allocated by a floating allocation method, as they were during the revolving period. This allows for the series to absorb only its share of defaults during the life of the transaction.


Priority of payments

There is a separate priority of payments for finance charges and principal.

The finance charge priority of payments is used to cover the following amounts:

  • Senior cost amounts,
  • Class A monthly distribution amount,
  • Class B monthly distribution amount,
  • Servicing fee,
  • Class A investor default amount and class A investor charge-offs,
  • Class B investor default amount and class B investor charge-offs,
  • Class C investor default amount, and
  • Class C investor default amount and class C investor charge-offs.

The principal collections are used to pay principal in order of seniority, starting with the class A principal.


Swap review

At closing, Turquoise will enter a currency swap with HSBC to hedge against currency mismatch between the collateral, which is denominated in sterling, and the payments, which are denominated in U.S. dollars. In the present structure, swaps will be executed at the issuer level, as there is only one global loan note. Each swap will correspond to a notional tranche of the global loan note, which in turn backs a series of notes issued by issuer.

If HSBC's rating falls below 'A-1+', it will be obliged to find a suitably rated replacement as swap counterparty within 30 days of the downgrade.

Swaps are entered into in accordance with Standard & Poor's criteria, which include minimum rating requirements and remedies following downgrade. Remedies include the posting of collateral, obtaining a guarantee, and replacement with another suitably rated party. We have set requirements regarding the amount of collateral that must be posted and will apply haircuts to the collateral to account for potential mark-to-market and foreign exchange risk. Swap agreements must also restrict the swap counterparty's ability to terminate the swap.


Credit enhancement

Protection for the class A notes is provided through the subordinate class B and C notes, and protection for the class B notes is provided through the subordinate class C notes.

Protection is provided to the class C notes through a spread capture mechanism that traps cash into an account if the average of three months' available spread measured across all series of linked notes is equal to or less than 4.5%. The account is held with HSBC, which has a short-term rating of 'A-1+'. Additional protection to class C notes is provided by a mechanism to trap excess spread.

The spread capture for the class C notes is shown in table 1 and is used to fund shortfalls of interest and, ultimately, principal on the class C notes. Our analysis of notes rated 'BBB' or below assumes that excess spread is available to be captured over a limited period.

Table 1 Spread Capture For The Class C Notes
Excess spread (%) Spread amount (%)
>4.5 0.0
>4.0 and <=4.5 1.5
>3.0 and <=4 3.0
>2.0 and <=3.0 4.0
<=2.0% 4.5


Collateral Description

The collateral consists of credit card receivables comprising payments of principal, interest, and other noninterest income. Our ratings are based, in part, on an evaluation of information provided by HSBC regarding the expected composition of the pool before note issuance.

The pledged collateral for this transaction consists of a portfolio of HSBC and HFC receivables. In our analysis, we considered the relative weight of each portfolio in arriving at the base cases for payment rate, yield, and gross charge-off.


Principal payment rate

Principal payment rate is defined as the ratio of monthly collection of principal to outstanding balance at the beginning of the month. It is expressed as a percentage. The payment rate is an important variable in the transaction as higher payment rates ensure that investors are paid quickly in adverse scenarios (see chart 3).

image

The monthly principal payment rate for the pool is healthy at around 21%. This has fallen from a high of 30% in August 2001. The recent drop in payment rate is a result of a marketing campaign that resulted in new customers being accepted on teaser rates. These customers do not have any incentive to repay more than the required minimum monthly payment. We expect that the principal payment rate will stabilize at about 20% per month.


Gross yield

Yield is defined as the ratio of aggregate monthly collections of interest, administration and penalty fees, and balance at the beginning of the month. The monthly yield thus calculated is annualized to derive the annualized yield. Although issuers treat interchange as a part of yield, we do not give any credit to it. Chart 4 shows the yield including interchange.

image

Gross yield for the pool has been steady at 16% each year until the first half of 2005. The rise in yield in the second half of 2005 was driven by risk-based pricing, which is now applied at both acquisition and account management level.


Gross charge-off/gross losses

The monthly charge-off rate can be described by the ratio of monthly gross charge-off and outstanding balance at the beginning of the month. The monthly charge-off rate thus calculated is annualized to get the annual charge-off rate. We lag the total outstanding by six months, in line with the issuer's practice of defaulting accounts that have been delinquent for more than 180 days (see chart 5).

image

The charge-off for the pool was steady around 3% for almost three years until the first half of 2004. In June and July 2004, there was a spike in gross charge-off. The rise was due to:

  • In June 2004, HSBC began charging-off accounts on notification of bankruptcy as required under the Enterprise Act 2002. This was coupled with an increase of more than 3.5x in outstanding balances on bankrupt accounts as compared to May 2004.
  • In July 2004, there was an increase due to a one-off exceptional charge-off of outstanding deceased customers following a process review.

In the second quarter of 2005, there was a further rise in charge-off, caused largely by migration to the proprietary WHIRL process system. The charge-off is expected to remain steady at approximately 5% and is higher than the results seen for 2001-2004, before migration to the WHIRL system. This reflects the tougher economic and consumer environment experienced over the course of 2005 and into 2006. In particular, the increased incidence of bankruptcy filings is driving a higher level of charge-off.


Credit Analysis

We have compared the collateral performance of TEP to other major issuers in the U.K. credit card market. Collateral performance compared with other market players gives a good understanding of relative subordination levels.


Annualized charge-off rate

Historically, TEP has had one of the lowest gross charge-off rates, compared to the prime issuers in the U.K. credit card market (see chart 6).

image


Yield

The gross yield for TEP has traditionally been lower than the index (see chart 7). We have seen a steady rise in gross yield for HSBC in the second half of 2005 as a result of risk-based pricing. A strong yield ensures that there is cash inflow in the transaction to pay to investors while sustaining the higher default conditions.

image


Monthly principal payment rate

TEP's principal payment rate is higher than that of any other major issuer in the U.K. credit card market (see chart 8). The European credit card payment rate index averages around 16.5% for the past year, while HSBC's average payment rate for the same period is around 21.5%. This means that the principal will be paid back to investors more quickly, reducing exposure to higher default conditions.

image


Cash Flow Analysis

Table 2 denotes the base case we used to determine the enhancement levels for the transaction. Table 3 defines the stresses for the 'AAA', 'A', and 'BBB' scenarios that gross charge-off, yield, and payment rate are subjected to (see "Cash Flow Results" for the outcome of the stress case inputs).

Table 2 Performance Indicators
Base case scenario
Default rate (subjected to stress) Yield (subjected to haircut) Payment rate (subjected to haircut)
5.5% 14% 20%

Table 3 Stress Scenarios
  AAA A BBB
Stress level for charge off 4.0x to 5.0x 2.5x to 3.0x 1.5x to 2.0x
Yield haircut 30% to 35% 25% to 30% 20% to 25%
Payment rate haircut 40% to 50% 30% to 40% 20% to 30%


Cash Flow Results

We model the cash flow only during the amortization period for the transaction. Series 2006-1 has an amortization period of three years. Chart 9 shows the payment investor certificate balance over time starting from June 2006, when the amortization period starts. It suggests that the latest note balance is paid in March 2010 under a 'AAA' scenario. Under a 'A' scenario, the notes are paid back in October 2009 and under a 'BBB' scenario, the notes are paid back in August 2009. These dates are well before the final maturity date of May 2011.

image


Monitoring And Surveillance

Credit card transactions are exposed to any change in the following principal performance indicators:

  • Monthly payment rate,
  • Charge-off rate, and
  • Yield.

It is difficult for these parameters to move in isolation. We ran two possible scenarios to measure the sensitivities of the parameters.


Scenario 1: Rise in charge-off with constant principal payment rate

Under the given credit structure, if the gross charge-off moves up by 1.0% from the base case of 5.5%, the yield needs to move up by 3.5% to compensate. There is flexibility built in the stress ranges applied, which allows the structure to absorb some upward movement in charge-off without a corresponding rise in yield.


Scenario 2: Drop in principal payment rate with constant gross charge-off

If the principal payment rate drops by 1.00% from the base case of 20.00%, the yield needs to move up by 2.95% to compensate. As discussed in scenario 1, there is flexibility built in the stress ranges applied, which allows the structure to absorb some of the possible downward movement in principal payment rate without a corresponding rise in yield.

We will continuously monitor the collateral performance for any adverse effect on the ratings on the notes.


Criteria Referenced

  • "Global Interest Rate and Currency Swaps: Calculating the Collateral Required Amount" (published on Feb. 26, 2004).
  • "Standard & Poor's Global Interest Rate and Swap Counterparty Rating Criteria Expanded" (published on Dec. 17, 2003).
  • "European Legal Criteria for Structured Finance Transactions" (published on March 23, 2005).
  • "Credit Card Criteria" (published in 1999).

Related Articles

  • "Lightening The Burden Of European ABS Surveillance" (published on Sept. 7, 2005).
  • "European Credit Card Index Report" (published quarterly).

All criteria and related articles are available on RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at www.ratingsdirect.com. The criteria can also be found on Standard & Poor's Web site at www.standardandpoors.com.