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U.S. Credit Card Quality Index: Performance Relatively Unchanged At Beginning Of Second-Half 2006

Publication Date:    Sep 07, 2006 09:12 EST

U.S. Credit Card Quality Index: Performance Relatively Unchanged At Beginning Of Second-Half 2006
Primary Credit Analyst:
Frank J Trick, New York (1) 212-438-1108;
frank_trick@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Credit Analysts:
Bonnie Lee Tillen, New York (1) 212-438-2624;
bonnie_tillen@standardandpoors.com
Kelly Luo, New York (1) 212-438-2535;
kelly_luo@standardandpoors.com
Patrick Coyne, New York (1) 212-438-2435;
patrick_coyne@standardandpoors.com
Publication date: 07-Sep-06, 09:12:51 EST
Reprinted from RatingsDirect


Despite some minor deterioration across certain variables, overall performance of U.S. credit card securitizations, as reported by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' bankcard Credit Card Quality Index (CCQI), remained fairly stable during July 2006. Some of the patterns exhibited during the month are as follows:

  • Charge-offs remained at historically low levels, but continued a recent and growing trend by increasing slightly to 4.0%;
  • Each of the delinquency buckets remained flat; and
  • The payment rate stayed above 20%, despite its second consecutive monthly decline.

Each of the key performance-related variables is discussed in further detail below. The CCQI monitors the performance of more than $350 billion in receivables held in trusts of rated credit card-backed securities, which make up nearly two-thirds of the total U.S. bankcard market (see table 1).

Table 1 Standard & Poor's Credit Card Quality Index
Distribution date Aug. 15, 2004 Aug. 15, 2005 June 15, 2006 July 15, 2006 Aug. 15, 2006
Performance month July-04 July-05 May-06 June-06 July-06
Outstandings (bil. $) 402.6 391.3 377.5 377.1 370.1
Yield (%) 17.3 18.8 18.9 18.3 18.8
Payment rate (%) 17.7 18.7 21.3 21.0 20.7
Charge offs (%) 6.1 6.1 3.6 3.5 4.0
Delinquencies (%) 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5
Weighted base rate (%) 3.8 5.5 6.8 6.9 7.0
Excess spread (%) 7.3 7.2 8.7 8.1 8.0


Issuers Versus The Index

Table 2 shows the July 2006 performance variables for the top three trusts in the CCQI based on principal receivables outstanding, compared with the performance statistics for the overall index. The top three trusts constitute 52% of the index.

Capital One Master Trust, which overtook First USA Credit Card Master Trust in June as the third-largest trust within the context of the CCQI, remained in the third position during July. As of July 31, 2006, Capital One Master Trust's principal receivables outstanding of $41.7 billion exceeded those of First USA Credit Card Master Trust by roughly $2.2 billion.

Table 2 Issuers Versus The Index
Trust Outstandings ($) Yield (%) Payment rate (%) Losses (%) Delinquencies (%) Base rate (%) Excess spread (%)
Index 370,137,670,753 18.8 20.7 4.0 3.5 7.0 8.0
BA Master Credit Card Trust II 77,101,992,801 18.7 17.7 3.8 4.2 7.4 7.5
Citibank Credit Card Master Trust I 74,511,853,388 17.3 21.5 3.9 3.0 5.7 7.7
Capital One Master Trust 41,700,704,605 19.0 18.0 2.6 3.4 7.4 9.0


Principal Receivables Decline

Aggregate outstanding principal receivables for the 25 master trusts that compose the index decreased by approximately $6.9 billion during July to $370.1 billion* from $377.1 billion in June (see chart 1). The decline was primarily due to the fact that BA Master Credit Card Trust, with receivables of approximately $5.7 billion, paid off in July and exited the CCQI. Consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased moderately to 107 in July from 105.7 in June. In August, however, consumer concerns regarding overall economic conditions, especially in light of increased borrowing costs, inflated gas prices, and shifting labor and housing market conditions, took their toll, knocking the confidence figure to its lowest level this year (99.6).

*Principal receivables have been adjusted downward, compared with figures reported before February 2005, to account for the collateral certificates issued out of First USA Credit Card Master Trust and Chase Credit Card Master Trust for the benefit of Chase Issuance Trust. To the extent that a collateral certificate is issued, receivables are counted in only one trust.

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Yield Increases By 50 Basis Points

Yield increased 50 basis points (bps) to 18.8% in July from a revised figure of 18.3% in June (see chart 2). More than three-fourths of the trusts that make up the CCQI saw increases in yield in July. Additionally, slightly more than 40% of the trusts continue to report yields that are greater than 20%. July's yield of 18.8% was 20 bps higher than the average of 18.6% for the first half of 2006, 40 bps higher than the average of 18.4% for 2005, and 120 bps higher than the 2004 average of 17.6%. Year-to-date 2006, yield has ranged from 18.1% to 19.4%. Yield, which consists primarily of cardholder finance charges, represents the income generated by the receivable pool that is available to cover the expenses of the trust. Yield levels are affected by cardholder agreement terms, the annual percentage rate (APR) charged by the issuer and other fee income, the percentage of convenience users in the portfolio, and the amount of late charges assessed to obligors, among other factors. Standard & Poor's believes that card yield and APRs, while lagged, will continue to rise as market interest rates continue to move upward.

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Payment Rate Gives Up Another 30 Basis Points In July

After gaining 170 bps in May 2006 (to 21.3%), the payment rate slid 60 bps over the two months that followed to 20.7%, which is still a robust payment rate compared with historical standards. Nearly half of the trusts in the CCQI experienced lower payment rates in July, reporting decreases ranging from 10 bps to 150 bps. Over the course of the most recent 12-month period, the overall payment rate has exceeded 20% seven times (with a high of 22.1% and a low of 20.7%). The July 2006 payment rate was on par with the average for the first six months of 2006, 200 bps higher than it was during the comparable period in 2005 (18.7%), 330 bps higher than the 2004 average of 17.4%, and 430 bps higher than the 2003 average of 16.4%. As of July 2006, the three-month average payment rates for the top three trusts (based on receivables outstanding) were 18.3% (BA Master Credit Card Trust II), 22.4% (Citibank Credit Card Master Trust I), and 18.0% (Capital One Master Trust).

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Charge-Offs Increase By 50 Basis Points

After declining by 10 bps in June, charge-offs increased by 50 bps to 4.0% in July, 100 bps above the index's historical low of 3% reported in February 2006 (see chart 4). Still, loss levels remain at historical lows. The charge-off rate for 2006 has ranged from 3.0% to 4.0% and has averaged 3.4%. Charge-offs for July were 230 bps lower than the 2005 average of 6.3%, 260 bps lower than the 2004 average of 6.6%, and 320 bps lower than the 2003 average of 7.2%. On a weighted average basis, the three-month average charge-off rate for the top three trusts is 3.2%. Standard & Poor's expects loss levels to begin normalizing throughout the remainder of 2006, returning to historical levels of around 6%.

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Delinquency Rates Remain Flat

Each of the delinquency buckets was flat in July compared with the prior month. While unchanged in July, the three delinquency rates do, however, remain lower than most of the monthly averages reported for the recent 12 months. The 3.5% 30-plus-day delinquency rate is 40 bps lower than the 2005 average of 3.9%, 100 bps lower than the 2004 average of 4.5%, and 180 bps lower than the 2003 average of 5.3%. The 2.4% 60-plus-day delinquency rate is 20 bps lower than the 2005 average, 70 bps lower than the 2004 average, and 120 bps lower than the 2003 average. Furthermore, the June 2006 90-plus-day delinquency rate of 1.6% remained on par with the 2005 average, 20 bps lower than the 2004 average, and 50 bps lower than the 2003 average (see chart 6). Through the first six months of 2006, the delinquency buckets saw low/high ranges of 3.4%/3.6% (30-plus-day), 2.3%/2.8% (60-plus-day), and 1.5%/1.6% (90-plus-day).

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Base Rate Increases Marginally

The base rate for July 2006 was up 10 bps to 7.0% from the prior month. The base rate peaked around 8% in the third and fourth quarters of 2000, but then experienced a pronounced decline beginning early in 2001, aided by record consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, before leveling off in 2002 and 2003 (see chart 7). The base rate began trending upward again in June 2004, in step with the increases in the Federal Funds rate, and has risen by 330 bps since that point. Standard & Poor's expects the base rate to continue increasing throughout 2006.

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Despite July's Decline, Excess Spread Levels Stay Robust

Despite the 50-bp increase in yield, the combined 60-bps increase in charge-offs and base rate caused excess spread to decrease by 10 bps to 8.0% in July from 8.1% in June (see chart 8). Compared with June 2006, excess spread decreased in less than one-third of the trusts in July. The three-month weighted average excess spread rate for July for the top three trusts was 8.0%. The 8.0% excess spread rate in July was 140 bps higher than the 2005 average of 6.6%, 90 bps higher than the 2004 average of 7.1%, and 130 bps higher than the 2003 average of 6.7%. Given that we expect loss levels to return to around 6% range, the sustainability of current excess spread levels is unlikely. Nonetheless, even with excess spread compression; levels will continue to provide investors with adequate first loss protection against trust defaults.

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Index Composition

The top 10 trusts continue to dominate the weighting in the CCQI. During July 2006, the weighting of the top three and top 10 trusts each increased by 1%, to 52% and 91%, respectively.

Charts 9 and 10 show the percentages represented by the top three and top 10 active trusts, respectively.

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Master Trust Performance And Surveillance

There were no rating actions on transactions backed by credit card receivables during July 2006. Standard & Poor's continues to closely track the performance of the subprime credit card master trusts that have exhibited the greatest volatility, which have accounted for all of the negative rating actions taken to date. Bankcard transactions in the prime sector continue to perform within expectations and remain consistent with the ratings assigned to the outstanding credit card securitizations.

Table 3 shows the number of rating actions (downgrades and upgrades) taken on credit card securitizations during each quarter since 2002.

Table 3 Rating Actions
  First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter Total
   Downgrades
2002 0 12 0 35 47
2003 13 8 26 0 47
2004 0 2 0 0 2
2005 0 0 0 0 0
2006 0 0      
Total         96
   Upgrades
2002 0 0 0 0 0
2003 0 3 0 3 6
2004 0 6 4 3 13
2005 0 0 16 14 30
2006 12 7     19
Total         68

Standard & Poor's performs regular periodic reviews of all rated credit card securitizations with the goal of identifying potential and emerging trends. Standard & Poor's also monitors and evaluates monthly changes in performance and collects and analyzes data from individual master trusts and their outstanding series on a monthly basis.


Appendix: U.S. CCQI Performance Variables

The CCQI is a monthly performance index that aggregates performance information across Standard & Poor's rated bankcard transactions in the following key risk areas: receivables outstanding, yield, payment rate, charge-off rate, delinquencies, base rate, and excess spread rate.

(Each master trust's weighting is determined by the size of its outstanding eligible principal receivables divided by the total outstanding eligible principal receivables for all trusts included in the index. The resultant CCQI weighted average performance variables are then determined by summing the result of each master trust's variables multiplied by each master trust's respective weighting.)


Receivables outstanding

Aggregate outstanding eligible principal receivables of credit card accounts backing each master trust at the end of the collection period.


Yield

The weighted average total trust income for the collection period, as a percentage of eligible principal receivables (annualized).


Total payment rate

The weighted average total monthly collections (obligor principal and finance charge payments), as a percentage of total outstandings.


Charge-off rate

The weighted average losses on principal receivables for the collection period, as a percentage of eligible principal receivables (annualized).


Delinquencies

The weighted average past-due amount for the collection period, as a percentage of the current month's eligible principal receivables.


Base rate

The weighted average cost of funding (sum of the certificate rate on a securitization and the corresponding transaction servicing fee) for the collection period.


Excess spread rate

The weighted average surplus of cash inflow for the collection period (yield minus charge-offs minus base rate).